This is the year that the Presidential sweepstakes begin. Candidates will start forming exploratory committees or go on "listening tours" and then formally announce their candidacies around summer. After a busy 2014, this is where the race starts the big year off. Expect this list to change drastically as candidates flub questions, have their personal lives ripped apart and skeletons revealed, or, in a better scenario, deliver knock-out speeches that elevate them above others.


Let the games begin.

1. Jeb Bush - The former Florida Governor was the first to take official steps towards a presidential run in December, 2014. He seems to be the establishment favorite right now and he leads in national polls. Iowa will be up for grabs for anyone, and if he were to win there and follow it up with a win in New Hampshire it would be game over pretty quickly. Conservatives are underwhelmed by the Bush option.

2. Chris Christie - The current Governor of New Jersey has a bit of a map advantage on his side. The battle for the establishment crown starts in New Hampshire, and Christie is geographically well-positioned here. Even if Jeb is leading in national polls early, a win by Christie could quickly change the tide by winning the granite state. No nominee in recent history has failed to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. It get's interesting if Jeb wins Iowa and Christie New Hampshire. 

3. Ben Carson - Carson will be strong in Iowa and he led the field in a recent North Carolina poll, which is possibly another key important early state.

We suspect he could also do well in South Carolina and he has a strong grassroots base in Florida, should Jeb falter early. It's a long-shot, but the early map is actually a good fit for him. He needs to survive public scrutiny and excel in a few debates to stay here, but right now he has a formidable ground insurgency building.

4. Mike Huckabee - The former Governor of Arkansas had a very late surge in the 2008 primary but it was not enough in the long run. He has the best name recognition of the social conservative candidates and would be a threat in Iowa, but Carson is a major threat with the faith-based voters.

5. Rand Paul - Paul once did well in these rankings but he has a problem in that he is a man without a core base. He's not establishment enough for the "pick the most electable candidate" voters - Bush and Christie are - and he won't be the top pick of either the social conservatives or the national defense conservatives. With 6 years and counting of a disastrous, hands-off diplomacy under President Obama voters will be skeptical of a candidate who will preach much of the same.

6. Scott Walker - The Wisconsin Governor is one of the few candidates who could possibly unite establishment and conservative elements within the Republican Party. He keeps winning elections in a blue state and has pushed a clearly conservative agenda forward. But he has a bit of a dullness about him that mightn't play so strongly nationwide in a long and grueling campaign. On paper, Walker is the best choice, but that isn't where nominations are won.

7. Marco Rubio - The US Senator from Florida has the opposite problem of Walker. He's a compassionate and gifted speaker and easily the Republican's best at delivering a speech. But many won't be impressed by his limited time in the US Senate and won't consider his time as Speaker of the state House of Representatives good enough. But also like Walker, he could be acceptable to both wings of the party.

8. Ted Cruz - He has a tea party following but may have alienated too may voters with his methods and would be hard-pressed to pull out victories in tough primary swing states.

9. Bobby Jindal - The Louisiana Governor has the advantage of low expectations set after a disastrous State of the Union rebuttal years ago.

10. Rick Perry - Despite decent name recognition and a high-profile job as Texas Governor, Perry is far back in Iowa polling and is doing even worse in New Hampshire. Right now it's hard to see where he does well.

11. Carly Fiorina -  She seems serious about running for President and could be the only female to enter the race, but her entrance otherwise doesn't make much sense.

12. Rick Santorum -  The former Pennsylvania Senator pulled a Mike Huckabee in 2012, winning Iowa thanks to social conservatives and then flaming out in the big contests. 2016 will be much more competitive and Santorum's 2012 supporters were not a building block to a bigger win. He was just the next man standing that year.

13. George Pataki - An anti-gun, anti-life nominee? Not going to happen.

Keep an eye on: Nikki Haley is the Governor of South Carolina and doing great things. She could easily be in the top 3 if she makes moves. Paul Ryan, the 2012 VP nominee, would be an instant top-5 candidate if he jumped in. John Kasich is another swing-state Governor but the field is likely too crowded for a candidate with less upside than many others already likely in the field.